Market
What will be the outcome of U.S. diplomatic efforts for Marc Fogel's release by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Release secured • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
No progress • 25%
Other diplomatic outcome • 25%
Official U.S. government statements, verified news reports
Story
U.S. Designates Pennsylvania Teacher Marc Fogel as Wrongfully Detained in Russia Over Medical Marijuana
Dec 27, 2024, 07:04 PM
Marc Fogel, a Pennsylvania schoolteacher, has been formally designated as 'wrongfully detained' by the U.S. government, according to the State Department. Fogel was arrested in Russia in August 2021 on drug charges related to the possession of medical marijuana, which he used to treat chronic back pain. He is currently serving a 14-year sentence in a Russian high-security penal colony. The designation of wrongful detention means that the U.S. government will now work collaboratively across various agencies to develop a strategy for securing his release. This move comes after years of advocacy from Fogel's family and lawmakers, who have been pushing for his release and for the wrongful detention status to be applied to his case.
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Yes • 50%
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Yes • 50%
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Location confirmed, not released • 25%
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Remains detained • 25%
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Abedini released • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Abedini remains detained in Italy • 25%
Abedini extradited to U.S. • 25%