Market
What will be the outcome of the next phase of prisoner exchanges between Israel and Hamas by April 30, 2025?
2
Israel•Palestinian•Hamas•Israeli•Gaza•Karina Ariev•Daniella Gilboa•Naama Levy•Liri Albag•Red Cross•Gaza City•Ofer•Ktziot•Egypt•Ramallah
Resolution / Starting Odds
Another 200 Palestinian prisoners released • 25%
Less than 200 Palestinian prisoners released • 25%
No further prisoner releases • 25%
Ceasefire agreement ends • 25%
Official announcements from Israeli and Hamas representatives or international news agencies
Story
Israel Frees 200 Palestinian Prisoners, Including 121 Serving Life Sentences, for Four Soldiers Held 15 Months
Jan 25, 2025, 09:00 PM
Israel released 200 Palestinian prisoners on Saturday as part of a ceasefire agreement with Hamas, in exchange for the release of four Israeli female soldiers held captive in Gaza for over 15 months. The soldiers, Karina Ariev, Daniella Gilboa, Naama Levy, and Liri Albag, were handed over to the Red Cross in Gaza City and subsequently reunited with their families in Israel. The Palestinian prisoners, including 121 serving life sentences and wearing grey tracksuits, were freed from Ofer and Ktziot detention facilities. Seventy of them were deported to Egypt and then to third countries. Celebrations erupted in Ramallah and Gaza as the Palestinian prisoners arrived, with crowds welcoming them with cheers and embraces. The ceasefire deal, which began last Sunday, aims to facilitate the release of hostages and prisoners in phases, with the first phase expected to last six weeks and see the staggered release of 33 Israeli hostages in total.
View original story
Similar markets
Exchange completed • 25%
No further exchange • 25%
Exchange postponed • 25%
Exchange canceled • 25%
Partially completed • 25%
Completed as planned • 25%
Other • 25%
Not completed • 25%
Full agreement reached • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Partial agreement reached • 25%
Equal exchange • 25%
More Israeli hostages released • 25%
No exchange occurs • 25%
More Palestinian prisoners released • 25%
Partial exchange • 25%
No exchange • 25%
Deal breakdown • 25%
All hostages and prisoners exchanged • 25%
Extended negotiations • 25%
Deal collapsed • 25%
Partial execution • 25%
Deal fully executed • 25%
Exchange not completed • 25%
Exchange completed with additional terms • 25%
Exchange completed as planned • 25%
Exchange partially completed • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Full implementation • 25%
Partial implementation • 25%
No implementation • 25%
Agreement abandoned • 25%
Indeterminate • 25%
Complete success • 25%
Partial success • 25%
Failure • 25%
