Market
What will be the outcome of the New Orleans attack investigation by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Lone actor confirmed • 25%
Accomplices identified • 25%
Foreign influence confirmed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official reports or announcements from the FBI or the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives
Story
New Orleans Attacker Kills 14 on Bourbon Street Using Rare Explosive in Failed ISIS-Inspired Bombs
Jan 5, 2025, 01:59 PM
Shamsud-Din Jabbar, a 42-year-old Texas-born Army veteran, perpetrated the New Orleans attack on New Year's Eve, using a very rare explosive compound in two homemade bombs that failed to detonate. The attack, inspired by ISIS, resulted in the deaths of 14 people when Jabbar drove a pickup truck into a crowd on Bourbon Street. The explosive compound has never been used in any U.S. or European terrorist attack or incident before. Federal investigators are examining how Jabbar, who set fire to a short-term rental house on Mandeville Street to destroy evidence, acquired the knowledge to create this explosive and are investigating the source of the materials found in his garage. The bombs were placed in coolers, and Jabbar intended to use a transmitter to detonate them, but they did not explode. The FBI and the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives are involved in the ongoing investigation, which has not found evidence of accomplices. Evidence recovered from the fire included precursors for bomb-making material and a privately made device suspected of being a silencer for a rifle.
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Unclear motives • 25%
Other • 25%
Part of larger network • 25%
Lone wolf attack • 25%
Other • 25%
Non-terrorism violent crime charges • 25%
Terrorism-related charges • 25%
No charges filed • 25%
Lone actor confirmed • 25%
Foreign involvement • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
Accomplices identified • 25%
Identified foreign group • 25%
Unresolved • 25%
Lone actor • 25%
Identified domestic group • 25%
Part of a larger network • 25%
Unclear or inconclusive • 25%
Part of a larger plot • 25%
Inconclusive due to lack of evidence • 25%
Acted alone • 25%
No suspect identified • 25%
Suspect apprehended but not charged • 25%
Lone wolf attack confirmed • 25%
Domestic terrorism • 25%
Suspect apprehended and charged • 25%
Other • 25%
Lone wolf attack • 25%
Part of larger terror cell • 25%
Investigation ongoing • 25%
Other • 25%
Lone wolf attack • 25%
Part of larger network • 25%
Insufficient evidence • 25%
Terrorism confirmed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
Terrorism not confirmed • 25%
International terrorist group involvement • 25%
Lone wolf attack • 25%
Solely domestic actors identified • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
Identified but not arrested all suspects • 25%
No suspects identified • 25%
Some suspects identified • 25%
Identified and arrested all suspects • 25%
Increased surveillance measures • 25%
Stricter bomb-making material regulations • 25%
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Other • 25%