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What will be the outcome of the Gaza reconstruction plan by the end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Fully implemented • 25%
Partially implemented • 25%
Not implemented • 25%
Implementation delayed • 25%
Reports from international organizations involved in the reconstruction, such as the UN or World Bank
Story
Biden Mistakenly Names Hezbollah While Announcing Israel-Hamas Ceasefire and Hostage Release Starting Sunday
Jan 15, 2025, 07:18 PM
During a news conference announcing a ceasefire and hostage deal between Israel and Hamas, U.S. President Joe Biden mistakenly referred to Hezbollah instead of Hamas as the group responsible for the October 7th massacre that initiated over 15 months of conflict. The ceasefire agreement, set to begin on Sunday, aims to end the fighting in Gaza and facilitate the release of Israeli hostages. The deal, reached after extensive negotiations involving the United States, Egypt, and Qatar, is structured in three phases: the first phase, lasting 42 days, will see the release of 33 Israeli captives by Hamas, the initial release of American hostages, a permanent end to the war, and the return of any remaining hostages' remains along with a major reconstruction plan for Gaza. Biden's error occurred as he detailed the deal's structure.
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No progress • 25%
Significant progress • 25%
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Minimal progress • 25%
Social services (schools, hospitals) • 25%
Commercial and economic zones • 25%
Residential housing • 25%
Infrastructure and utilities • 25%
Less than $10 billion • 25%
More than $30 billion • 25%
$20 billion to $30 billion • 25%
$10 billion to $20 billion • 25%
Aid successfully delivered • 25%
Aid delivery disrupted • 25%
No significant aid delivered • 25%
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Abandoned • 25%
Successfully implemented • 25%
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Partially implemented • 25%
European Union • 25%
Other Middle Eastern countries • 25%
United Nations • 25%
United States • 25%
United Nations • 25%
Other • 25%
UAE • 25%
United States • 25%
Failed negotiations • 25%
Long-term ceasefire • 25%
Short-term ceasefire • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Ceasefire implemented • 25%
Increased international military intervention • 25%
No ceasefire, continued conflict • 25%
Partial ceasefire with ongoing skirmishes • 25%
Hamas remains, war ends • 25%
Hamas removed, war ends • 25%
Hamas remains, war continues • 25%
Hamas removed, war continues • 25%