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What will be the outcome of the EU-Mercosur Summit by December 6, 2024?
2
European Commission•Ursula von der Leyen•Montevideo•Uruguay•Mercosur Summit•European Union•Mercosur•Von der Leyen•Brazil•Argentina•Paraguay•France
Resolution / Starting Odds
Agreement signed • 25%
Agreement delayed • 25%
Agreement rejected • 25%
No decision • 25%
Official announcements from the EU or Mercosur, major news outlets
Story
EU and Mercosur Poised to Sign Historic Trade Deal After 25 Years at Uruguay Summit
Dec 5, 2024, 12:38 PM
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has arrived in Montevideo, Uruguay, to attend the Mercosur Summit, signaling that the long-awaited trade agreement between the European Union and Mercosur is close to completion. Von der Leyen stated that the "finish line is in sight" for the historic agreement, which would create a trans-Atlantic market of 700 million people after 25 years of negotiations. Leaders from Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay are expected to announce the conclusion of the deal during the summit on December 5-6. Despite the progress, France has expressed opposition to the deal.
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Similar markets
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
France • 25%
Germany • 25%
Spain • 25%
Other • 25%
Increase in Mercosur exports • 25%
Increase in EU exports • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Balanced trade growth • 25%
New energy trade deal • 25%
Tariffs imposed • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Trade tensions escalate • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Increased tariffs on EU • 25%
New trade deal with EU • 25%
New trade deal with China • 25%
Increased tariffs on China • 25%