Market
What will be the outcome of the $10 million reward for information on Guan Tianfeng by December 31, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Reward leads to capture • 25%
Reward leads to significant information but no capture • 25%
Reward remains unclaimed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from the U.S. Department of State or law enforcement agencies
Story
US Sanctions Sichuan Silence and Employee for Cyberattacks on 81,000 Sophos Firewalls
Dec 11, 2024, 04:41 AM
The United States has imposed sanctions on Sichuan Silence Information Technology Co Ltd, a Chinese cybersecurity firm, and one of its employees, Guan Tianfeng, for their involvement in cyberattacks targeting critical infrastructure. Guan Tianfeng, a 30-year-old Chinese national, has been charged with exploiting a zero-day vulnerability in 81,000 Sophos firewalls worldwide, which facilitated the infiltration of critical systems, theft of sensitive data, and targeting U.S. infrastructure in April 2020. The U.S. Department of State has announced a $10 million reward for information leading to the arrest of Guan and his co-conspirators. One notable incident involved an energy company actively involved in drilling during the attack.
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Tip-off from informant • 25%
Independent U.S. operation • 25%
International cooperation • 25%
Voluntary surrender • 25%
Case Dismissed • 25%
Acquittal • 25%
Conviction • 25%
Ongoing • 25%
Multiple Claimants • 25%
No Claimant • 25%
One of the Three High School Students • 25%
Another Individual • 25%
Elmer Yuen • 17%
Other or none • 17%
Anna Kwok • 17%
Dennis Kwok • 17%
Ted Hui Chi-fung • 17%
Kevin Yam • 17%
Remains in power • 25%
Other • 25%
Arrested • 25%
Surrenders • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No further action • 25%
Yang Tengbo extradited • 25%
Legal action against associates • 25%
Further investigation • 25%
Acquitted • 25%
Case dismissed • 25%
Convicted and sentenced to prison • 25%
Convicted with suspended sentence • 25%