Market
What will be the outcome of Richard Grenell's consideration for Iran envoy role by March 31, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Appointed as envoy • 25%
Not appointed, remains in another role • 25%
Not appointed, exits government service • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements or credible news sources
Story
Trump Considers Former Intelligence Chief Richard Grenell for Iran Envoy Role
Dec 12, 2024, 02:17 AM
President-elect Donald Trump is reportedly considering appointing Richard Grenell, his former intelligence chief and ex-U.S. Ambassador to Germany, as a special envoy for Iran. This consideration comes from sources familiar with the transition plans, although no final decisions have been made on personnel or strategy regarding Iran. Grenell's potential role would involve handling U.S. policy towards Iran, a position of significant importance given the current geopolitical climate.
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Mission aborted • 25%
Successful agreement reached • 25%
No mission conducted • 25%
Talks initiated but no agreement • 25%
Focus on military options • 25%
Focus on sanctions • 25%
Focus on human rights • 25%
Focus on diplomacy • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Position remains unfilled • 25%
Appointed as envoy • 25%
Appointed to another role • 25%
Not appointed to any role • 25%
China • 25%
Middle Eastern countries • 25%
Russia • 25%
European Union • 25%