Market
What will be the outcome of Elon Musk's proposal as Speaker of the House by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Musk becomes Speaker • 25%
Musk declines the role • 25%
Another candidate is chosen • 25%
No decision made • 25%
Official congressional records or announcements
Story
Rand Paul Proposes Elon Musk as Next Speaker of the House to Disrupt Establishment After Short-Term Spending Bill Conflict with Mike Johnson
Dec 19, 2024, 01:35 PM
Senator Rand Paul has proposed that Elon Musk be appointed as the new Speaker of the House, suggesting that such a move could disrupt the political establishment. Paul emphasized that the Speaker need not be a member of Congress, stating, "Nothing would disrupt the swamp more than electing Elon Musk . . . think about it . . . nothing’s impossible." This call comes after Musk's involvement in recent political events, including his role in undermining a bipartisan agreement on a short-term spending bill. Paul is the first to publicly advocate for Musk's candidacy, with various commentators expressing support for the idea.
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Elon Musk declines or is not nominated • 25%
Elon Musk is nominated but not elected • 25%
Other candidate elected • 25%
Elon Musk becomes Speaker • 25%
Majority oppose • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Majority support • 25%
Low public interest • 25%
Majority favor • 25%
Majority oppose • 25%
Evenly split • 25%
Budget reform • 25%
Government transparency • 25%
Technology regulation • 25%
Other • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Strongly Support • 25%
Somewhat Oppose • 25%
Somewhat Support • 25%
Strongly Oppose • 25%
Partial support and implementation • 25%
Indefinite postponement • 25%
Rejection of proposals • 25%
Full support and implementation • 25%
Increased influence • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
No change • 25%
Decreased influence • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased influence • 25%
Decreased influence • 25%
Unclear • 25%