Market
What will be the outcome of Ahmad al-Sharaa's pledge on terrorist groups by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Successfully upheld • 25%
Partially upheld • 25%
Not upheld • 25%
Unclear • 25%
Reports from international monitoring organizations or official government statements
Story
US Cancels $10 Million Bounty on HTS Leader Ahmad al-Sharaa
Dec 20, 2024, 07:00 PM
The United States has cancelled the $10 million bounty under the Rewards for Justice program on Ahmad al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Mohammad al-Julani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the new de facto leader of Syria. US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf announced the decision after meeting with al-Sharaa in Damascus. Leaf stated that al-Sharaa pledged not to allow terrorist groups to operate in Syria and threaten the US or neighboring countries.
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Increase in terrorist activities • 25%
Significant reduction in terrorist activities • 25%
No change in terrorist activities • 25%
Unclear outcome • 25%
No attacks occur • 33%
Minor incidents reported • 33%
Major conflict erupts • 34%
Mixed reactions • 25%
No significant international stance • 25%
Predominantly negative • 25%
Broad international support • 25%
Recognized by some, not all • 25%
Recognized by all major Western countries • 25%
Not recognized by any • 25%
Status unclear • 25%
Other • 25%
Remains leader • 25%
Steps down voluntarily • 25%
Removed by internal HTS decision • 25%
No clear stance • 25%
Announces inclusive policies • 25%
Reverses current policies • 25%
Continues current policies • 25%
Partial success • 25%
Opposition gains ground • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Complete victory for Assad • 25%