Market
What will be the next major action by the French Socialist Party post no-confidence vote by March 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Call for early elections • 25%
Propose new legislation • 25%
Form coalition with other parties • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Announcements from the French Socialist Party or credible news outlets
Story
French PM Barnier Faces No-Confidence Vote After Using Special Powers for Social Security Bill
Dec 2, 2024, 02:44 PM
French Prime Minister Michel Barnier has decided to use special constitutional powers to push through a social security bill without a parliamentary vote, a move that has sparked political controversy. This decision has led to the French Socialist Party, led by Olivier Faure, and the far-right National Rally (RN) party, announcing their intention to vote against Barnier in a potential no-confidence vote. Additionally, French left-wing leader Mathilde Panot has lodged a motion of no-confidence against the government. This action by Barnier is seen as an attempt to bypass the legislative process, raising concerns about the stability of his government.
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Vote postponed • 25%
Barnier retains position • 25%
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Other outcome • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Government survives • 33%
No vote held • 34%
Government falls • 33%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
National Rally • 25%
La France Insoumise • 25%
Other • 25%
La République En Marche! • 25%