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What will be the impact on similar laws in other states within six months of the Supreme Court's decision?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
No change in other states • 25%
More states enact similar bans • 25%
Some states repeal similar bans • 25%
Mixed outcomes across states • 25%
State legislative records and legal challenges.
Story
Supreme Court Appears Likely to Uphold Tennessee's Ban on Gender-Affirming Care for Transgender Minors
Dec 4, 2024, 12:24 PM
On December 4, the US Supreme Court heard oral arguments in United States v. Skrmetti, a case challenging Tennessee's S.B.1, a law enacted in 2023 that bans gender-affirming care for transgender minors, including puberty blockers, hormone therapies, and surgeries. The Biden administration and transgender rights advocates, including Chase Strangio, the first openly transgender man to argue before the court, contend that the ban violates the Equal Protection Clause of the 14th Amendment. The outcome is significant as it could set a precedent affecting similar laws in more than 20 other states. During the arguments, the Supreme Court's conservative majority appeared skeptical of the challenge to Tennessee's law.
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Similar markets
Other outcome • 25%
More than 10 states uphold similar laws • 25%
No significant change in states' laws • 25%
More than 10 states repeal similar laws • 25%
Increase in similar laws • 33%
Decrease in similar laws • 33%
No significant change • 34%
Decrease in similar laws • 25%
Mixed impact • 25%
No change • 25%
Increase in similar laws • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Mixed changes • 25%
Decrease in similar laws • 25%
Increase in similar laws • 25%
Increase in similar laws • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Decrease in similar laws • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Increase religious exemptions • 25%
Decrease religious exemptions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Mixed outcomes • 25%
Majority oppose the decision • 25%
Majority support the decision • 25%
Low public interest • 25%
Mixed reaction • 25%
Evenly split • 25%
Majority support the ruling • 25%
Majority oppose the ruling • 25%
No significant public response • 25%