Market
What will be the impact on migrant detentions due to new ICE and CBP policy by end of 2025?
1
Trump•Immigration and Customs Enforcement•ICE•Customs and Border Protection•Department of Homeland Security•Homeland Security•Benjamine Huffman•United States
Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant Increase • 25%
Moderate Increase • 25%
No Change • 25%
Decrease • 25%
Official DHS or ICE reports on detention statistics
Story
Trump Administration Allows ICE and CBP to Arrest Criminal Aliens in Sensitive Locations
Jan 21, 2025, 10:42 PM
The Trump administration has rescinded policies that previously limited immigration enforcement actions in sensitive locations such as schools, churches, and hospitals. This change allows Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Customs and Border Protection (CBP) officers to conduct arrests in these areas, marking a shift from longstanding guidelines established in 2011 and 2013. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) stated that this move is intended to empower law enforcement to apprehend criminal aliens, including those accused of serious crimes, who have entered the U.S. illegally. Acting Homeland Security Secretary Benjamine Huffman announced the end of two directives, one of which eliminates a legal pathway for migrants seeking to enter the United States, and the other phases out humanitarian parole programs that allowed certain migrants to live and work temporarily in the country. The administration aims to enforce immigration laws more rigorously and prevent criminals from using sensitive locations as sanctuaries to evade arrest.
View original story
Similar markets
Decrease • 25%
Increase significantly • 25%
Increase slightly • 25%
No change • 25%
Mixed Reactions • 25%
Mostly Supportive • 25%
Mostly Opposed • 25%
Indifferent • 25%
Decrease • 25%
Increase by more than 20% • 25%
Increase by 10-20% • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Mixed Results • 25%
Increased Trust • 25%
Decreased Trust • 25%
No Change • 25%
Increase in asylum applications • 25%
No change in asylum applications • 25%
Decrease in asylum applications • 25%
Increase in asylum denials • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
More favorable • 25%
Other • 25%
No change • 25%
Less favorable • 25%
Not implemented • 25%
Other • 25%
Partially implemented • 25%
Fully implemented • 25%
New Visa Restrictions • 25%
Increased Deportations • 25%
No Significant Changes • 25%
Pathway to Citizenship • 25%
Significant decrease in undocumented immigrants • 25%
Increase in undocumented immigrants • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Moderate decrease in undocumented immigrants • 25%
Increase by more than 50% • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increase by less than 25% • 25%
Increase by 25-50% • 25%