Market
What will be the impact of Trump's inauguration invitation on U.S.-China diplomatic relations by June 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Improved diplomatic relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Worsened diplomatic relations • 25%
Initiated new talks • 25%
Statements from U.S. and Chinese government officials or credible diplomatic analysis
Story
Trump Invites Xi Jinping to January 20th Inauguration Despite Tariff Threats
Dec 12, 2024, 09:26 PM
President-elect Donald Trump has extended an invitation to Chinese President Xi Jinping to attend his inauguration on January 20th, despite ongoing tensions over trade and geopolitical issues. This move is seen as an attempt to foster dialogue with both allies and competitors. However, sources indicate that Xi Jinping is not expected to attend the ceremony in person, with China likely to send a high-level delegation in his place. The invitation comes amidst Trump's threats to impose massive tariffs on Chinese goods and his administration's efforts to address illegal immigration and drug trafficking from China. The decision to invite Xi has surprised both Beijing and U.S. allies, given the complex dynamics of U.S.-China relations and the absence of precedent for foreign leaders attending U.S. presidential inaugurations.
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No significant change • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Mixed outcomes • 25%
No response • 25%
Accepts • 25%
Declines • 25%
Accepts and attends • 25%
Declines the invitation • 25%
Accepts but does not attend • 25%
No response by inauguration • 25%
Other • 25%
No response • 25%
Decline the invitation • 25%
Send a high-level delegation • 25%
Attend personally • 25%
Uncertain/Other • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Visit Postponed • 25%
Visit Cancelled • 25%
No Announcement • 25%
Visit Occurs • 25%
Bilateral talks • 25%
Other • 25%
Official state visit • 25%
Unofficial visit • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Worsened relations • 25%
Indeterminate • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Other • 25%
Strengthened ties • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
No official representation • 25%
Mid-level delegation • 25%
High-level delegation • 25%
Xi Jinping • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No Significant Change • 25%
Other • 25%
Strengthened Alliances • 25%
Weakened Alliances • 25%