What type of security guarantee will Ukraine receive in peace negotiations?
NATO membership • 25%
Bilateral security pact with the US • 25%
UN-backed security guarantee • 25%
No formal guarantee • 25%
Official agreements or declarations from the involved parties
Zelensky Sees 39% Chance of Ending Ukraine War in 24 Hours Under Trump, Seeks Security Guarantees
Jan 5, 2025, 07:18 PM
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has expressed optimism that the war with Russia could end during Donald Trump's presidency, with a 39% probability according to Polymarket odds. Zelensky suggested that Trump might be the first leader to travel to Ukraine by plane after the conflict, highlighting the symbolic nature of such a visit, contingent on the airport being safely opened. Trump has promised to end the war within 24 hours of taking office, a claim that has sparked discussions among Ukrainians about the possibility of a peace deal with Russia, as reported by the Kyiv Independent. Zelensky envisions a direct negotiation with Trump on January 25 to discuss strategies to stop Russian President Vladimir Putin, followed by talks with Russia contingent on security guarantees for Ukraine. Meanwhile, experts Michael Froman and Charles Kupchan argue that continued US military and financial assistance is crucial for achieving a peace settlement favorable to Ukraine, suggesting that Trump's approach should include robust support to maintain Ukraine's sovereignty and security, as Bloomberg opines. Zelensky shared these views during an interview on the Lex Fridman podcast.
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No new security guarantees • 25%
Limited security guarantees • 25%
Comprehensive security guarantees • 25%
Security guarantees revoked • 25%
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Economic aid • 25%
Military support • 25%
No guarantees • 25%
Diplomatic assurances • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
EU only • 25%
U.S. only • 25%
NATO • 25%
None • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
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Assistance ends • 25%
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War continues • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
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