Market
What role will Grenell hold in the Trump administration by February 28, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Special envoy for Iran • 25%
Another diplomatic role • 25%
No official role • 25%
Other • 25%
Official announcements or credible news sources
Story
Trump Considers Grenell for Iran Envoy, Signals Hardline Policy Despite Denial
Dec 12, 2024, 07:54 AM
President-elect Donald Trump is reportedly considering appointing Richard Grenell, his former intelligence chief and ex-ambassador to Germany, as a special envoy for Iran. Grenell, who has been described as a 'star' by Trump, is expected to engage with regional and international stakeholders regarding Iran. However, Grenell has denied these reports, indicating that the information is incorrect. Trump's choice of Grenell, if confirmed, would signal a continuation of a hardline policy towards Iran, potentially reviving the 'maximum pressure' strategy against the country.
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Similar markets
Not appointed to any role • 25%
Position remains unfilled • 25%
Appointed as envoy • 25%
Appointed to another role • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Moderate impact • 25%
Significant positive impact • 25%
Negative impact • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Significant Positive Impact • 25%
Moderate Positive Impact • 25%
No Significant Impact • 25%
Negative Impact • 25%
Venezuela • 25%
No mission by this date • 25%
Another country • 25%
North Korea • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Appointed as envoy • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Not appointed, exits government service • 25%
Not appointed, remains in another role • 25%