Market
Status of Gaza hostages by December 31, 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
All hostages confirmed alive • 25%
Majority confirmed alive • 25%
Majority confirmed dead • 25%
Status unchanged • 25%
Official statements from Israeli government or credible news reports
Story
Israeli Minister Confirms 60 Hostages Alive After 418 Days in Gaza
Nov 30, 2024, 05:24 PM
Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs, Ron Dermer, has stated that 60 of the 101 hostages held in Gaza are confirmed to be alive. This information was reportedly communicated to former U.S. President Donald Trump, following earlier reports suggesting that most of the hostages were presumed dead. The hostages have been in captivity for 418 days, and the situation remains dire, with as many as two-thirds of the hostages potentially still alive. Calls for Trump to engage in negotiations for their release have emerged, as skepticism grows over Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's ability to secure their freedom.
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Similar markets
Hostages remain but negotiations continue • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
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No release • 25%
Partial release • 25%
Hostages transferred to another group • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
Released • 25%
Transferred to another location • 25%
Gaza • 25%
Unknown • 25%
