Market
Resolution of China's alleged drone shipment to Libya case by end of 2025?
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China•92 Wing Loong•Libya•Libyan•Canada•Royal Canadian Mounted Police•RCMP•International Civil Aviation Organization•ICAO
Resolution / Starting Odds
Case closed without action • 25%
Legal actions taken • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Ongoing investigation • 25%
Reports from international news agencies or official government announcements
Story
China Planned Shipment of 92 Wing Loong Drones Worth $1 Billion to Libya, Disguised as COVID Aid, Investigated by Canada's RCMP
Dec 30, 2024, 01:18 PM
China is reportedly involved in a scheme to send 92 Wing Loong armed drones, valued at $1 billion, to Libya. The operation, which aimed to circumvent an international arms ban, was to be conducted through a UK-based shell company. The drones were disguised as COVID-19 assistance and were intended to be exchanged for discounted Libyan crude oil. The plan is under investigation by Canada's Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP). Allegations suggest that three individuals connected to the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) were involved in negotiating the deal.
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Similar markets
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No significant action taken • 25%
Spy expelled from UK • 25%
Diplomatic tensions rise • 25%
Other • 25%
No Official Response • 25%
Retaliatory Measures • 25%
Denial of Involvement • 25%
Request for Diplomatic Talks • 25%
Denial of allegations • 25%
No official response • 25%
Diplomatic talks initiated • 25%
Retaliatory measures against the UK • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Unknown action • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Arrest but no extradition • 25%
Arrest and extradition • 25%
