Market
Republican confidence in mail-in ballots above 70% by end of 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Public opinion polls conducted by reputable organizations like Gallup or Pew Research
Story
Republican Confidence in Mail-in Ballots Soars to 72% After Trump's 2024 Victory
Dec 6, 2024, 01:45 AM
Voter confidence in the administration of the 2024 U.S. presidential election has risen significantly compared to the 2020 contest, driven largely by increased trust among Republican voters following President-elect Donald Trump's victory. Nationally, the percentage of Republican voters who are confident that absentee and mail-in ballots were counted as intended increased from 19% in November 2020 to 72% in November 2024. In Arizona, overall confidence in election administration grew from approximately 76% in December 2020 to 82% in December 2024, with registered Republicans' confidence jumping from 40% to 76%. The higher approval ratings reflect a sharp contrast to sentiments following the previous election, with voters broadly positive about how elections were conducted. This confidence increase is attributed to Trump's win, as his supporters perceive the election as fairer than the one he lost in 2020.
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