Market
Public support for Trump on hush money conviction by March 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Republican Party • 25%
Independent public figures • 25%
No significant support • 25%
Other political parties • 25%
Public statements and endorsements in media or social media
Story
Judge Merchan Upholds Trump's Hush Money Conviction Despite Immunity Claim
Dec 17, 2024, 02:14 AM
On Monday, a New York judge rejected President-elect Donald Trump's bid to have his hush money conviction dismissed, ruling that the U.S. Supreme Court's July decision on presidential immunity does not apply to his case. Judge Juan Merchan determined that the evidence against Trump pertains to unofficial conduct that is not protected by presidential immunity. The conviction, stemming from a May verdict related to a 2016 hush money payment to adult film actress Stormy Daniels, therefore stands.
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Evenly Split Opinion • 25%
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Conviction Upheld • 25%
Conviction Reduced • 25%
Pardon Granted • 25%
Conviction Overturned • 25%
Kevin McCarthy • 25%
Other • 25%
Mitch McConnell • 25%
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Less than 30% • 25%
50% to 69% • 25%
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70% or more • 25%
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Majority oppose conviction • 25%
Majority support conviction • 25%
No significant public reaction • 25%
Above 70% • 25%
51%-70% • 25%
Below 30% • 25%
30%-50% • 25%