Market
Public Opinion on Trump's Conviction by June 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Majority Support Conviction • 25%
Majority Oppose Conviction • 25%
Evenly Split Opinion • 25%
Low Public Awareness • 25%
Public opinion polls from reputable sources
Story
NY Judge Upholds Trump's 34 Felony Counts in Hush Money Case, Rejects Immunity Claims
Dec 17, 2024, 01:20 PM
A New York judge has rejected President-elect Donald Trump's bid to dismiss his conviction in the hush money case, ruling that the conviction withstands the U.S. Supreme Court's recent decision on presidential immunity. Judge Juan Merchan determined that the evidence presented in the case was related to unofficial conduct and did not infringe on the authority of the Executive Branch. Trump was convicted in May on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records related to a $130,000 payment to adult film actress Stormy Daniels, aimed at silencing her about an alleged affair during the 2016 presidential campaign. The judge's decision keeps the conviction intact despite Trump's arguments that the Supreme Court's ruling on immunity should apply.
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No significant change • 25%
Divided opinion • 25%
Increased support • 25%
Decreased support • 25%
Majority oppose conviction • 25%
Majority support conviction • 25%
No significant public reaction • 25%
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Majority believe innocent • 25%
Majority believe guilty • 25%
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Inconclusive • 25%
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Evenly split • 25%
Minor protests • 25%
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No significant support • 25%
Republican Party • 25%
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Other political parties • 25%
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Majority oppose • 25%