Market
Primary legal strategy in Trump's appeal by June 30, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Focus on presidential immunity • 25%
Challenge evidence validity • 25%
Procedural errors • 25%
Other legal arguments • 25%
Court filings and statements from Trump's legal team
Story
Judge Merchan Upholds Trump's 34 Felony Convictions in Hush Money Case
Dec 17, 2024, 12:30 AM
Judge Juan Merchan in New York rejected President-elect Donald Trump's bid to dismiss his conviction in the hush money case involving payments to adult film actress Stormy Daniels. Trump, who was convicted on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records to conceal a sex scandal, had argued that the Supreme Court's recent ruling on presidential immunity should nullify his convictions. However, Merchan ruled that the immunity does not apply to "unofficial conduct entitled to no immunity protections" occurring before Trump's presidency, and thus the convictions stand. The decision maintains Trump's criminal conviction ahead of his return to office next month.
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Similar markets
File countersuit • 25%
Seek settlement • 25%
Appeal the judgment • 25%
No major action • 25%
Other • 25%
Constitutional Grounds • 25%
Legal Procedures • 25%
New Evidence • 25%
Lack of evidence • 25%
Presidential immunity • 25%
Procedural errors • 25%
Other • 25%
File for mistrial • 25%
Pursue appeal • 25%
Seek a plea deal • 25%
No further action • 25%
Other legal arguments • 25%
Political motivation • 25%
Lack of evidence • 25%
Constitutional immunity • 25%
Dismissal Motion • 25%
Settlement • 25%
Appeal • 25%
Plea Deal • 25%
Other • 25%
Sent back for retrial • 25%
Conviction reversed • 25%
Conviction upheld • 25%
Negotiate plea deal • 25%
Claim executive privilege • 25%
Challenge legality of search • 25%
Other • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Case Postponed • 25%
Conviction Upheld • 25%
Conviction Dismissed • 25%