Market
Primary focus of HTS's activities in Syria by mid-2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Political engagement • 25%
Military operations • 25%
Humanitarian efforts • 25%
Other • 25%
Reports from credible news agencies and statements from HTS
Story
US Cancels $10M Bounty on HTS Leader Al-Sharaa After Anti-Terror Pledge
Dec 20, 2024, 06:24 PM
The United States has canceled the $10 million bounty on Ahmed al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Mohammad al-Julani, the leader of the Syrian group Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and considered by some as the de facto leader of Syria. US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, Barbara Leaf, announced the decision on December 20 after meeting with al-Sharaa in Damascus. During the meeting, which focused on Syria's political transition, al-Sharaa pledged not to allow terrorist organizations to operate in Syria or threaten the United States. The US had previously offered the reward for information leading to his capture.
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Expansion of territory • 25%
Increased international engagement • 25%
Reduction in territory • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other role • 25%
HTS forms own government • 25%
HTS excluded from government • 25%
HTS part of interim government • 25%
No new governance established • 25%
Transitional government • 25%
Democratic elections • 25%
Authoritarian rule • 25%
Recognized as government • 25%
No recognition • 25%
Recognized as non-state actor • 25%
Recognized as local authority • 25%
Healthcare • 25%
Infrastructure • 25%
Energy Supplies • 25%
Food and Water • 25%
No change • 25%
Both leadership and policy change • 25%
Policy shift • 25%
Leadership change • 25%
Economic recovery • 25%
Military restructuring • 25%
Diplomatic relations • 25%
Social reforms • 25%
Food security • 25%
Electricity infrastructure • 25%
Healthcare services • 25%
Water and sanitation • 25%
Decreased influence • 25%
Increased influence • 25%
Disbanded • 25%
No change • 25%
Loss of control to another group • 25%
Stable control over Syria • 25%
Partial control with ongoing conflicts • 25%
International intervention • 25%
Humanitarian aid • 25%
Military support • 25%
Political stabilization • 25%
Reconstruction • 25%
