Market
Primary condition of Ukrainian POWs in next exchange by end of 2025?
2
Russia•Ukraine•United Arab Emirates•Belarus•Mariupol•Azovstal steelworks•Kharkiv•Donetsk•Zaporizhzhia•Kherson•Ukrainian•Russian•Volodymyr Zelensky
Resolution / Starting Odds
Healthy • 25%
Minor injuries • 25%
Serious injuries • 25%
Critical condition • 25%
Official statements from Ukraine's defense ministry or credible news reports
Story
Russia and Ukraine Exchange 25 POWs Each, Including Azovstal Defenders, in UAE-Mediated Swap
Jan 15, 2025, 01:24 PM
Russia and Ukraine have conducted the first prisoner exchange of 2025, each side releasing 25 prisoners of war, according to statements from both countries' defense ministries. The exchange, mediated by the United Arab Emirates, took place on the territory of Belarus. Among those returning to Ukraine are military personnel and civilians, including defenders from Mariupol and the Azovstal steelworks, as well as individuals from the Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions. Many of the Ukrainian returnees are reported to have serious injuries and illnesses, including amputations, gunshot wounds, tuberculosis, cancer, and gangrene. The Russian soldiers are currently in Belarus receiving medical care before being transported to Russia for further treatment and rehabilitation. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed commitment to bringing all Ukrainians home, stating that Ukraine will not stop until all its people are returned.
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Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant personnel • 25%
Mariupol defenders • 25%
Azovstal defenders • 25%
Other units • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
200-299 each side • 25%
300 or more each side • 25%
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100-199 each side • 25%
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200 to 299 • 25%
300 or more • 25%
100 to 199 • 25%
More than 25 each • 25%
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No exchange by deadline • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Proposal Rejected • 25%
Negotiations Ongoing • 25%
Successful Exchange • 25%
No Public Outcome • 25%
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25-50 prisoners exchanged • 25%
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Other outcome • 25%
Successful exchange • 25%
Negotiations fail • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 25%
