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Primary condition for Israel-Hamas ceasefire by May 31, 2025
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Complete withdrawal of Israeli forces • 25%
Exchange of prisoners • 25%
Humanitarian aid access • 25%
Other conditions • 25%
Official statements from Israeli or Hamas leadership or credible news outlets like Reuters or BBC
Story
Hamas Agrees to Swap 34 Hostages for Palestinian Prisoners in Ceasefire Talks
Jan 5, 2025, 06:02 PM
Palestinian militant group Hamas has approved a list of 34 hostages presented by Israel to be exchanged for Palestinian prisoners in a potential ceasefire agreement, according to a Hamas official cited by Reuters on Sunday. The official stated that any deal would depend on Israel agreeing to withdraw its forces from Gaza and establish a permanent ceasefire. This development comes after previous obstacles in negotiations over the number and names of hostages to be released. Hamas had previously insisted that a ceasefire must precede any exchange discussions. Israeli sources confirmed that while Hamas has 'approved' the list, the group has not clarified how many of the hostages are alive or who among them is alive. Negotiations are ongoing as both sides work towards reaching an agreement.
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Exchange of prisoners • 25%
Other • 25%
Immediate cessation of hostilities • 25%
Humanitarian aid access • 25%
2-4 weeks • 25%
Less than 1 week • 25%
1-2 weeks • 25%
More than 4 weeks • 25%
Other • 25%
Continued ceasefire • 25%
Renewed conflict • 25%
Formal peace agreement • 25%
Partial agreement with limited hostilities • 25%
Successful extension of ceasefire • 25%
Ceasefire ends with no agreement • 25%
Resumption of hostilities • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
Major violations occur • 25%
Minor violations occur • 25%
Ceasefire holds without violations • 25%
