Market
Duration of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire by February 28, 2025
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Less than 1 week • 25%
1-2 weeks • 25%
2-4 weeks • 25%
More than 4 weeks • 25%
Reports from credible news outlets confirming the status of the ceasefire
Story
Israel's Security Cabinet Approves Gaza Ceasefire and Hostage Deal, Awaits Full Cabinet Approval
Jan 17, 2025, 01:05 PM
Israel's security cabinet has approved a ceasefire and hostage release deal with Hamas in Gaza. The agreement, announced by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office, includes the release of dozens of Israeli hostages held by Hamas. The security cabinet met on Friday, and the deal will now go to the full cabinet for final approval expected later today. The ceasefire and release of hostages are anticipated to begin on Monday.
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More than 2 years • 25%
Less than 6 months • 25%
6 months to 1 year • 25%
1 to 2 years • 25%
Partial ceasefire with conditions • 25%
Renewed hostilities • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Partial agreement with limited hostilities • 25%
Resumption of hostilities • 25%
Successful extension of ceasefire • 25%
Ceasefire ends with no agreement • 25%
1 to 2 months • 25%
2 to 3 months • 25%
More than 3 months • 25%
Less than 1 month • 25%
Minor violations occur • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
Ceasefire holds without violations • 25%
Major violations occur • 25%
