Market
Primary cause of Disease X identified by June 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Malaria • 25%
New Pathogen • 25%
Combination of Malaria and Respiratory Infection • 25%
Unknown/Other • 25%
WHO or DRC health ministry reports
Story
WHO Probes 'Disease X' in Congo: 31 Dead, 416 Infected, Malaria Suspected
Dec 11, 2024, 09:43 AM
The World Health Organization (WHO) is investigating a mysterious illness in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) known as 'Disease X', which has resulted in 31 deaths, primarily among children, out of 416 infected individuals. Initial tests indicate that 80% of the samples tested positive for malaria, suggesting a possible link between the outbreak and this common tropical disease. The WHO has sent additional teams to the DRC to collect more samples and clarify the nature of the disease. While some patients have tested positive for malaria, there is speculation that the disease might be a combination of malaria with other respiratory infections or an entirely new pathogen. The outbreak has raised international concerns due to the potential for it to become a global health emergency.
View original story
Similar markets
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Linked to DRC outbreak • 25%
Independent outbreak • 25%
Result of other known disease • 25%
Cause remains unknown • 25%
Malaria confirmed as sole cause • 25%
Unknown cause identified • 25%
Cause remains unidentified • 25%
Malaria with another identified cause • 25%
Malaria • 25%
Other • 25%
COVID-19 • 25%
Influenza • 25%
Pneumonia • 25%
Influenza • 25%
Malaria • 25%
Other • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
New viral disease • 25%
Other • 25%
Combination of known diseases • 25%
Bacterial infection • 25%
Outbreak ongoing • 25%
Outbreak worsened • 25%
Outbreak fully controlled • 25%
Outbreak partially controlled • 25%
Respiratory Infection • 25%
Severe Malaria • 25%
Other • 25%
New Viral Disease • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Coronavirus • 25%
Other known pathogen • 25%
Newly discovered pathogen • 25%
Influenza virus • 25%