Market
Malaria confirmed as primary cause of Disease X outbreak by April 30, 2025?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
WHO or DRC health ministry reports
Story
WHO Probes 'Disease X' in Congo: 31 Dead, 416 Infected, Malaria Suspected
Dec 11, 2024, 09:43 AM
The World Health Organization (WHO) is investigating a mysterious illness in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) known as 'Disease X', which has resulted in 31 deaths, primarily among children, out of 416 infected individuals. Initial tests indicate that 80% of the samples tested positive for malaria, suggesting a possible link between the outbreak and this common tropical disease. The WHO has sent additional teams to the DRC to collect more samples and clarify the nature of the disease. While some patients have tested positive for malaria, there is speculation that the disease might be a combination of malaria with other respiratory infections or an entirely new pathogen. The outbreak has raised international concerns due to the potential for it to become a global health emergency.
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Unknown cause identified • 25%
Malaria confirmed as sole cause • 25%
Cause remains unidentified • 25%
Malaria with another identified cause • 25%
Linked to DRC outbreak • 25%
Cause remains unknown • 25%
Result of other known disease • 25%
Independent outbreak • 25%
Outbreak partially controlled • 25%
Outbreak fully controlled • 25%
Outbreak worsened • 25%
Outbreak ongoing • 25%
Bacterial infection • 25%
Other • 25%
Combination of known diseases • 25%
New viral disease • 25%
Influenza virus • 25%
Other known pathogen • 25%
Newly discovered pathogen • 25%
Coronavirus • 25%
Other • 25%
Fungus • 25%
Virus • 25%
Bacteria • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Fungus • 25%
Bacteria • 25%
Virus • 25%
Other • 25%