Market
Outcome of the next major legal challenge on the ERA by end of 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
ERA recognized as 28th Amendment • 25%
ERA not recognized • 25%
Further legal proceedings required • 25%
No ruling • 25%
Court rulings or legal documentation
Story
Biden Declares ERA the 28th Amendment After Three States' Approval, But Archivist Refuses Certification
Jan 17, 2025, 03:04 PM
President Joe Biden, in a statement released days before leaving office, declared his belief that the Equal Rights Amendment (ERA) has been ratified and should be considered the 28th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution. Biden emphasized his 50-year support for the amendment, which he says guarantees equal rights and protections under the law regardless of sex. The ERA, which would prohibit discrimination based on gender, was ratified by Virginia in 2020, becoming the 38th state to do so after recent approvals by three states, meeting the constitutional threshold for ratification. However, Biden's statement does not carry legal force, and he has not directed the Archivist of the United States to publish the amendment officially, despite the Archivist's refusal to certify it due to a missed congressional deadline for ratification.
View original story
Similar markets
Further action required by Congress • 25%
ERA not recognized as ratified • 25%
ERA recognized as ratified • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
ERA recognized as 28th Amendment • 25%
No decision made • 25%
Partial recognition with conditions • 25%
ERA not recognized • 25%
ERA not recognized • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ongoing legal proceedings • 25%
ERA recognized as 28th Amendment • 25%
ERA Ratified • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Further Legal Action Required • 25%
ERA Not Ratified • 25%
Case dismissed • 25%
ERA is validly ratified • 25%
ERA is not validly ratified • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
ERA upheld • 25%
Case dismissed • 25%
ERA rejected • 25%
Other • 25%
U.S. Congress • 25%
State Governments • 25%
Federal Courts • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Declaration upheld • 25%
Declaration overturned • 25%
Case dismissed • 25%
No resolution • 25%