Market
Outcome of Standoff at President Yoon's Residence by Jan 31, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Peaceful resolution • 25%
Use of force • 25%
Continued standoff • 25%
Other • 25%
Reports from major news outlets or official statements from South Korean authorities
Story
Military Blocks Arrest of Impeached South Korean President Yoon After Seven-Hour Standoff
Jan 3, 2025, 05:16 AM
South Korean investigators from the anti-corruption agency attempted to arrest impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol at his residence over his failed martial law bid, but were blocked by a military unit inside the official residence compound, leading to a tense seven-hour standoff. Yoon's lawyer called the arrest warrant 'illegal and invalid,' threatening legal action against attempts to detain him. Approximately 2,700 police officers were involved in the operation. Hundreds of supporters gathered outside his residence in Seoul during the standoff, vowing to protect him from arrest. Ultimately, authorities suspended their attempt to detain the president due to safety concerns.
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Voluntarily surrenders • 25%
Arrested • 25%
Flees the country • 25%
Standoff continues • 25%
Extended standoff • 25%
Peaceful resolution • 25%
Forcible arrest • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Arrest delayed • 25%
Arrest blocked by security • 25%
Successful arrest • 25%
Arrest attempt called off • 25%
Protests lead to President Yoon's resignation • 25%
Protests escalate into larger national movement • 25%
Protests subside with no major change • 25%
Protests lead to new government policies • 25%
Yoon resigns • 25%
Protests dissipate • 25%
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Government crackdown • 25%
Successfully detained • 25%
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Flees the country • 25%
Still at large • 25%
Martial law upheld and funds remain blocked • 25%
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Martial law revoked • 25%
Funds unblocked • 25%
Violence or unrest • 25%
Peaceful resolution • 25%
Protesters disband without resolution • 25%
Government concession • 25%
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Yoon Suk Yeol faces trial • 25%
New presidential election called • 25%
Yoon Suk Yeol reinstated • 25%
Warrant expires without arrest • 25%
Other • 25%
New legal action delays arrest • 25%
Yoon is arrested • 25%
President Yoon arrested • 25%
Resolution overturned • 25%
President Yoon not arrested, but investigation continues • 25%
Other outcome • 25%