Market
Outcome of Ronaldo Caiado's appeal against ineligibility by Dec 31, 2025?
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TRE•Ronaldo Caiado•União Brasil•Caiado•Palácio das Esmeraldas•Goiás•Sandro Mabel•Goiânia•Mabel•Cláudia Lira•Avante•Superior Electoral Court•TSE
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ruling Overturned • 33%
Ruling Upheld • 33%
Modified Ruling • 34%
Official court ruling or public announcement by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE)
Story
Goiás Governor Ronaldo Caiado Ruled Ineligible for 8 Years, Impacting 2026 Presidential Candidacy
Dec 11, 2024, 03:35 PM
The Regional Electoral Court of Goiás (TRE-GO) has ruled Governor Ronaldo Caiado (União Brasil) ineligible to run for office for eight years due to political power abuse. This decision stems from Caiado's use of the Palácio das Esmeraldas, the seat of the Goiás government, for political events supporting Sandro Mabel (União Brasil), the elected mayor of Goiânia. Mabel's registration as mayor has also been revoked, along with that of his vice-mayor, Cláudia Lira (Avante). The ruling, which can be appealed, was based on a resolution from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) this year, citing the use of 'magic words' to disguise vote solicitation. Caiado, who secured re-election with over 1.8 million votes, has not yet commented on the decision, but his allies are confident that it will be overturned. The case has sparked discussions on the implications for Caiado's potential presidential candidacy in 2026. The political dinners at the Palácio das Esmeraldas were highlighted as the reason for the condemnation.
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Partial success, ineligibility period reduced • 25%
Appeal withdrawn or not pursued • 25%
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TRE-GO • 25%
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STF (Supreme Federal Court) • 25%
TSE (Supreme Electoral Court) • 25%
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