Market
Outcome of NJ drone sightings investigation by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
No foreign involvement • 25%
Linked to a foreign adversary • 25%
Linked to a domestic source • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Official investigation reports or credible news coverage summarizing the findings.
Story
Pentagon Denies Iranian Mothership Theory, Finds No Evidence of Foreign Entity in New Jersey Drone Sightings
Dec 11, 2024, 07:19 PM
The Pentagon has stated that there is no evidence to support the claim that drones spotted over New Jersey are from a foreign entity or adversary. This statement comes in response to assertions by Representative Jeff Van Drew that these drones were launched from an Iranian 'mothership' off the U.S. east coast. Pentagon officials have explicitly denied the existence of such a ship and any so-called mothership launching drones towards the United States. Furthermore, the Department of Defense's initial assessment found no evidence of a foreign entity or adversary involvement, and there has been no request for assistance from other agencies. The military has not shot down these drones as they did not pose a threat to its installations.
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Ongoing investigation • 25%
No conclusive source found • 25%
Identified source • 25%
Classified outcome • 25%
Unresolved • 25%
Technical Malfunction • 25%
Identified as Security Threat • 25%
Hoax or False Alarm • 25%
Domestic origin • 25%
Hoax or misinformation • 25%
Unknown origin • 25%
Foreign origin • 25%
Unidentified • 25%
Identified as commercial activity • 25%
Identified as foreign surveillance • 25%
Identified as recreational use • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
Drones deemed harmless • 25%
Drones pose a security threat • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Source remains unidentified • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Identified as a domestic entity • 25%
Identified as a foreign entity • 25%
Identified as foreign origin • 25%
Unknown origin • 25%
Identified as domestic origin • 25%
Deemed as non-threatening • 25%
Technical Malfunction • 25%
Unresolved • 25%
Intentional Surveillance • 25%
Hoax • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Public safety concern • 25%
Security threat identified • 25%
No threat found • 25%
Identified as foreign surveillance • 25%
Identified as hobbyist activity • 25%
Identified as domestic activity • 25%
Cause remains unidentified • 25%
Other • 25%
Foreign government involvement • 25%
Domestic entity involvement • 25%
No conclusive result • 25%
Identified as unauthorized drones • 25%
Identified as manned aircraft • 25%
Other • 25%
No conclusive identification • 25%