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Outcome of international investigations into Druzhba pipeline attack by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Ukraine confirmed responsible • 25%
Russia accuses another party • 25%
Insufficient evidence to conclude • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Reports from international investigative bodies and news agencies
Story
Ukrainian Forces Target Druzhba Oil Pipeline on December 30, 2024, Using Peklo Missile-Drone; Technical Building Damaged
Dec 30, 2024, 10:36 AM
On the night of December 30, 2024, the Druzhba oil pipeline in the Bryansk region of Russia was reportedly attacked by Ukrainian forces using a new missile-drone known as 'Peklo.' The strike occurred around 4:30 AM local time in the village of Mamai. While the pipeline itself was not damaged, a technical building at the site suffered partial destruction. The Druzhba pipeline is a critical route for transporting oil from Russia to Europe via Belarus, making it a strategic target amidst ongoing tensions. Various sources, including Russian media, confirmed the attack, indicating the involvement of unknown UAVs.
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Investigation inconclusive • 25%
Ukraine confirmed responsible • 25%
No responsible party identified • 25%
Another party confirmed responsible • 25%
No conclusive evidence found • 25%
Other findings • 25%
Evidence implicating the U.S. • 25%
Evidence implicating Ukraine • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Attack confirmed but no significant damage • 25%
No attack occurred • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
Attack confirmed with significant damage • 25%
European Union • 25%
United Nations • 25%
NATO • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Support for Ukraine • 25%
Condemnation of Ukraine • 25%
Call for investigation • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Condemnation of Ukraine • 25%
Support for Ukraine • 25%
Call for independent investigation • 25%
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Another state actor found responsible • 25%
Russia found responsible • 25%
Non-state actor found responsible • 25%
Cause remains undetermined • 25%
Accidental explosion • 25%
Undetermined • 25%
Sabotage • 25%
Terrorist attack • 25%
Sanctions against Ukraine • 25%
No significant consequences • 25%
Increased military tensions • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%