Market
Outcome of EU efforts to cease ELN hostilities by end of 2025
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Colombian•Catatumbo•National Liberation Army•ELN•FARC•Gustavo Petro•Venezuela•Venezuelan•European Union
Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful ceasefire • 25%
Partial reduction in violence • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased hostilities • 25%
Official EU statements or credible news reports
Story
Colombia Declares State of Internal Disturbance as ELN and FARC Dissidents Clash in Catatumbo, Causing 80 Deaths and Displacing 36,000
Jan 22, 2025, 12:42 PM
The Colombian government has declared a state of internal disturbance in response to escalating violence in the Catatumbo region, where clashes between the National Liberation Army (ELN) and a dissident faction of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) have resulted in at least 80 deaths and the displacement of over 36,000 people. President Gustavo Petro has suspended peace talks with the ELN and deployed additional military forces to the area. The violence has led to significant humanitarian concerns, with reports of forced displacement, confinement, and the interruption of education for 46,000 children. Six signatories of the peace accords have been killed amid the conflict. The United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) has condemned the situation, highlighting serious violations of international humanitarian law. The Colombian government has also requested Venezuela to enhance border control to prevent ELN fighters from using Venezuelan territory as a base. The European Union and its member states have condemned the ELN's campaign of violence in the region, urging an immediate cessation of hostilities.
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Formal breakdown • 25%
Stalemate continues • 25%
Resumption of talks • 25%
New peace agreement • 25%
Temporary ceasefire • 25%
No change in conflict status • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Successful peace agreement • 25%
Territorial concessions • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
No significant outcome • 25%
Economic cooperation • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Conflict continues • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire declared • 25%
Ceasefire talks continue without agreement • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Ceasefire talks collapse • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Worsens the situation • 25%
Successfully resolves conflict • 25%
Partially resolves conflict • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Extended negotiations • 25%
Ceasefire broken • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Failed Transition • 25%
Successful Transition • 25%
Ongoing Transition • 25%
Partial Transition • 25%
No significant action • 25%
UN intervention • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
Mediation efforts • 25%