Market
Outcome of Ecuador minors' disappearance investigation by end of 2025?
2
Taura•Guayaquil•Steven Medina•Nehemías Arboleda•Ismael•Josué Arroyo•Las Malvinas•National Assembly of Ecuador
Resolution / Starting Odds
Convictions with sentences • 25%
Acquittals • 25%
Ongoing investigation • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Final investigation report from Ecuadorian authorities or official announcements
Story
Ecuador Confirms Charred Bodies of Four Minors, Orders Preventive Detention for 16 Military Personnel
Dec 31, 2024, 10:12 PM
The Ecuadorian Attorney General's Office confirmed that the charred bodies found last week near a military base in Taura belong to four minors who disappeared after being detained by soldiers on December 8 in Guayaquil. The minors, identified as Steven Medina, Nehemías Arboleda, and brothers Ismael and Josué Arroyo, aged between 11 and 15, were playing football in the Las Malvinas neighborhood when they were apprehended by a military patrol. A judge ordered preventive detention for 16 military personnel involved in the case, who are being investigated for the alleged forced disappearance of the minors. The National Assembly of Ecuador declared three days of institutional mourning following the confirmation of the minors' murder, urging the government to apply the full weight of the law in this case.
View original story
Similar markets
Sect disbanded • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Formal charges filed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Identified and arrested suspects • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
Identified but not arrested suspects • 25%
No suspects identified • 25%
All convicted • 25%
Mistrial or retrial • 25%
Some convicted, some acquitted • 25%
All acquitted • 25%
None convicted • 25%
Trial not concluded • 25%
All convicted • 25%
Some convicted • 25%
Charges dropped • 25%
Ongoing trial • 25%
Acquittal • 25%
Conviction • 25%
Other • 25%
Case Dismissed • 25%
Not Guilty • 25%
Guilty • 25%
Some convictions, some acquittals • 25%
Multiple convictions • 25%
Investigation ongoing • 25%
All acquitted • 25%
Special prosecutor • 25%
Military tribunal • 25%
Ecuadorian Police • 25%
Independent commission • 25%
Case dismissed • 25%
No legal action • 25%
Trial held • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
Evidence found, charges filed • 25%
No evidence found • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Evidence found, no charges • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
Felix found guilty • 25%
Felix found not guilty • 25%
Investigation ongoing • 25%