Market
Outcome of black box analysis for Jeju Air crash by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Data recovered and useful • 25%
Data recovered but inconclusive • 25%
Data unrecoverable • 25%
Other • 25%
Official statements or reports from the NTSB or South Korean aviation authorities
Story
179 Dead in Jeju Air Crash; Black Boxes Stopped Recording 4 Minutes Before Impact
Jan 11, 2025, 06:07 AM
Investigators in South Korea reported that the black boxes from the Jeju Air Boeing 737-800 that crashed on December 29 at Muan Airport stopped recording four minutes before the accident. The aircraft, carrying 181 passengers, belly-landed and hit a concrete structure, resulting in the deaths of 179 people. Earlier in the flight, the plane had collided with a flock of birds, causing damage to the engine turbines. The loss of data from the flight data recorder and cockpit voice recorder may hinder efforts to determine the cause of the crash. The black boxes have been sent to the United States for further analysis.
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Other • 25%
Data Recovered • 25%
Data Corrupted • 25%
Data Irretrievable • 25%
Bird strike • 25%
Mechanical failure • 25%
Adverse weather conditions • 25%
Pilot error • 25%
Negligence by airport • 25%
Accidental bird strike • 25%
Negligence by airline • 25%
Other • 25%
Bird strike • 25%
Landing gear failure • 25%
Pilot error • 25%
Other • 25%
Control system failure • 25%
Pilot error • 25%
Other • 25%
Bird strike • 25%
Airport design flaw • 25%
Pilot error • 25%
Other • 25%
Bird strike • 25%
Hydraulic system failure • 25%
Mechanical failure • 25%
Mechanical issue • 25%
Other • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Confirms ground fire • 25%