Market
Outcome of Artemis II trajectory modifications
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful modification • 33%
Partially successful • 33%
Unsuccessful • 34%
NASA mission reports and analysis
Story
NASA Delays $93 Billion Artemis Moon Missions to 2026 and 2027, Awaiting SpaceX Lander
Dec 5, 2024, 07:00 PM
NASA has announced further delays to its $93 billion Artemis moon missions, pushing back the first crewed flight around the Moon, Artemis II, to April 2026, and the subsequent lunar landing mission, Artemis III, to mid-2027, assuming the SpaceX lander is ready. The delays are attributed to concerns with the Orion spacecraft's heat shield, observed during the uncrewed Artemis I mission. NASA Administrator Bill Nelson stated that Artemis II will use a modified trajectory to address the heat shield issues. The Artemis II mission, originally planned for 2019-2021, is now 5 to 7 years behind schedule. Despite being over budget, NASA aims to land astronauts on the Moon ahead of China's publicly stated goal of a lunar landing by 2030.
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Similar markets
Mission cancelled • 25%
Mission failure • 25%
Successful launch and mission • 25%
Launch delayed • 25%
No further delay announced • 25%
Delay announced in Q1 2025 • 25%
Delay announced in Q2 2025 • 25%
Delay announced in Q3 2025 • 25%
Other factors • 25%
Weather conditions • 25%
Technical issues • 25%
Launch timing • 25%
2029 or later • 25%
Before July 2027 • 25%
July to December 2027 • 25%
2028 • 25%
Successful landing • 25%
Partial success • 25%
Unsuccessful landing • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Some experiments successful • 25%
No experiments successful • 25%
All experiments successful • 25%
Few experiments successful • 25%
Other developments • 25%
No significant change in relations • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
Increased military action by Israel • 25%
Successful landing but some payloads non-operational • 25%
Landing attempt but mission failure • 25%
Launch failure • 25%
Successful landing and all payloads operational • 25%