Market
National Rally Gains Influence Post No-Confidence Vote by Jan 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Reports from French parliamentary sessions or credible news outlets like Le Figaro
Story
France's Government Faces No-Confidence Vote from Far-Right and Leftist Parties
Dec 4, 2024, 12:14 PM
France is on the brink of political upheaval as both the far-right National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen, and the leftist Socialists have announced their intention to vote against Prime Minister Michel Barnier in an upcoming no-confidence vote. This rare alignment of political extremes could lead to the toppling of the French government, an event not seen since 1962. President Emmanuel Macron's parliamentary coalition is at risk, with the potential for the government to be brought down by this unlikely coalition. The political turmoil has also raised concerns about a potential short squeeze in French stocks, as the uncertainty surrounding the vote could impact market stability. President Macron has urged lawmakers to vote for Barnier in an attempt to maintain stability.
View original story
Similar markets
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Maintain seats • 25%
Increase seats • 25%
Other • 25%
Lose seats • 25%
Organize protests • 25%
Call for early elections • 25%
File another motion of censure • 25%
No major action • 25%
Strengthens cohesion • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Leads to divisions • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Motion of censure filed • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Government makes concessions • 25%
Article 49.3 invoked • 25%
Existing alliances strengthened • 25%
Alliances weakened • 25%
No significant alliance changes • 25%
New alliances formed • 25%
Government survives • 33%
Government falls • 33%
No vote held • 34%