Market
Legal challenges delay Trump January 6 pardons by Feb 1, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Federal court rulings and official government statements by February 1, 2025
Story
Trump Promises Day One Pardons for January 6, 2021 Defendants Following Decisive Reelection Victory
Dec 15, 2024, 09:41 AM
President-elect Donald Trump has pledged to pardon all individuals convicted in connection with the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot as soon as he takes office. Trump has indicated that he will begin issuing these pardons on his first day in office, emphasizing that all defendants were subjected to a two-tier justice system and were treated differently from those affiliated with the Democratic Party. The commitment to pardon these individuals has garnered attention following Trump's decisive reelection victory in November, which has reignited hope among those convicted in the Capitol attack. Various commentators have noted that the number of potential pardons could be significant, as Trump has expressed intentions to grant clemency to a wide range of defendants, although details on specific individuals remain unclear.
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Similar markets
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No legal challenges • 25%
Challenges from federal level • 25%
Challenges from state level • 25%
Challenges from both levels • 25%
Significant Legal Challenges • 25%
Unclear Outcome • 25%
Minor Legal Challenges • 25%
No Legal Challenges • 25%
Federal court challenges • 25%
No challenges • 25%
State court challenges • 25%
Both federal and state court challenges • 25%
Pardons overturned • 25%
No legal challenges • 25%
Mixed outcomes • 25%
Pardons upheld • 25%
