Market
Legal challenges against Trump's January 6 pardons by December 31, 2025?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Court filings and legal news reports
Story
Trump Pardons 1,500 January 6 Rioters, Commutes Sentences of 14 Including Proud Boys and Oath Keepers Leaders
Jan 21, 2025, 06:00 AM
President Donald Trump, on his first day back in the White House, issued a sweeping pardon for approximately 1,500 individuals involved in the January 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol. The pardons extend to those convicted of assaulting police officers during the event. Trump described the pardoned individuals as 'hostages' and expressed hope that they would be released immediately. Additionally, he commuted the sentences of 14 others, including leaders of the far-right extremist groups Proud Boys and Oath Keepers, such as Enrique Tarrio and Stewart Rhodes. The move fulfills a campaign promise made by Trump and marks a significant action in his second term as president.
View original story
Similar markets
Pardons upheld • 25%
No legal challenges • 25%
Mixed outcomes • 25%
Pardons overturned • 25%
Minor Legal Challenges • 25%
No Legal Challenges • 25%
Unclear Outcome • 25%
Significant Legal Challenges • 25%
Violation of Federal Law • 25%
Other • 25%
Abuse of Power • 25%
Constitutionality • 25%
Challenges from both levels • 25%
No legal challenges • 25%
Challenges from federal level • 25%
Challenges from state level • 25%
State court challenges • 25%
Both federal and state court challenges • 25%
No challenges • 25%
Federal court challenges • 25%
