Market
Key Arctic governance changes involving Greenland by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
New Arctic governance framework • 25%
Increased U.S. influence • 25%
Increased Chinese influence • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Official announcements from Arctic Council or relevant international bodies
Story
Trump Eyes Greenland for Oil, Gas, and Critical Minerals Amid National Security Concerns
Jan 17, 2025, 05:26 PM
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has reignited discussions about acquiring Greenland, a Danish territory, for strategic and resource-related reasons. Trump's interest in Greenland is driven by its vast reserves of oil, gas, and critical minerals, which have become more accessible due to the island's melting ice, potentially sparking a mineral gold rush. The proposal has drawn varying degrees of interest from Republican lawmakers, with some viewing it as a strategic move against China's growing influence in the Arctic, citing national security concerns. Greenland's Prime Minister Múte Egede has emphasized the territory's desire for independence and strong cooperation with the U.S., while firmly stating that Greenland is not for sale. The geopolitical implications of Trump's interest have sparked debates on Arctic governance and the potential for increased competition over trade routes and resources, particularly over rare earth metals.
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Gains independence • 25%
Other • 25%
Remains under Danish control • 25%
Becomes US territory • 25%
Interim government • 25%
New PM from a different party • 25%
New PM from the same party • 25%
Múte B. Egede remains PM • 25%
Greater autonomy • 25%
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Reduced autonomy • 25%
Increased autonomy • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
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No significant response • 25%
Negotiate with U.S. • 25%
Strengthen ties with Denmark • 25%
Seek independence from Denmark • 25%
Supportive of sale • 25%
Opposed to sale • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
No official stance • 25%
Independence • 25%
Greater autonomy • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Closer ties with Denmark • 25%
Other changes • 25%
Maintains current status • 25%
Becomes U.S. territory • 25%
Increased autonomy • 25%
Remains part of Denmark • 25%
Becomes independent • 25%
Joins the U.S. • 25%
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Defense agreement • 25%
Mining cooperation • 25%
No major step • 25%
Economic partnership • 25%