Market
How will the US-Houthi tension over the drone incident be resolved by June 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Continued military confrontation • 25%
Stalemate with no resolution • 25%
Other • 25%
Official statements from the US government and Houthi representatives or credible news reports
Story
Yemen's Houthis Claim Downing Second US MQ-9 Reaper Drone Worth $32 Million Over Marib
Jan 1, 2025, 06:40 AM
Yemen's Houthi forces have claimed that they shot down a US-made MQ-9 Reaper drone, valued at approximately $32 million, over the skies of Marib. According to Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree, the drone was conducting hostile operations when it was downed by a domestically-manufactured surface-to-air missile. This marks the second aircraft they claim to have downed in 72 hours and the 14th overall. The US has not yet confirmed the incident.
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Increased US military involvement • 25%
Withdrawal of US forces • 25%
Continued hostilities • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
No significant outcome • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
No significant outcome • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
Peace talks initiated • 25%
Increased sanctions on Yemen • 25%
UN condemnation • 25%
Other • 25%
Sanctions proposed • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Other • 25%
New sanctions on Yemen • 25%
Increased military aid to Israel • 25%
No significant outcome • 25%
International intervention • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Minor impact on Houthi capabilities • 25%
Houthi capabilities strengthened • 25%
Significant degradation of Houthi capabilities • 25%
No measurable impact on Houthi capabilities • 25%
Peace talks initiated • 25%
Increased sanctions on Yemen • 25%
Other diplomatic actions • 25%
No significant diplomatic actions • 25%
No confirmation • 25%
Denied by US • 25%
Confirmed successful • 25%
Confirmed unsuccessful • 25%
