Market
How will the international community respond to the fall of Assad's regime by March 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Sanctions imposed • 25%
Diplomatic recognition of new government • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Statements from the United Nations, European Union, or major countries reported by credible news sources
Story
US Officials: Assad Regime in Syria May Fall in Days, Homs Could Collapse Friday
Dec 7, 2024, 05:53 PM
The Biden administration is increasingly observing signs that the Assad regime in Syria could collapse within days, with the government-held city of Homs potentially falling as soon as Friday night, according to US officials cited by Al-Monitor and CNN. The opposition factions are expected to take control of Homs before turning their attention to Damascus. A senior US official told CNN that an organized coup against Assad's regime is the only thing that could delay the opposition's advance on Damascus. The emerging consensus among five US officials is that the scenario of Assad's regime falling is increasingly plausible.
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Increased sanctions on Iran • 25%
Other • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
Other • 25%
Sanctions against Syria • 25%
Support for government in exile • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Widespread condemnation • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
General support • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Other • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
U.S. rejects offer • 25%
U.S. supports Assad • 25%
No support • 25%
Support from multiple countries • 25%
Support from Israel only • 25%
Condemnation • 25%
Calls for peace talks • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
Increased sanctions on Syria • 25%
Other • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Calls for peace • 25%
Condemnation • 25%
Limited support and aid • 25%
Strong support and aid • 25%
Opposition to new government • 25%
No significant support • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Humanitarian aid increase • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic Negotiations • 25%
Sanctions • 25%
Military Intervention • 25%
No Significant Action • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
No significant action • 25%
UN sanctions • 25%
Military intervention • 25%