Market
How will the decision on Nippon Steel's acquisition affect U.S. international relations by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Improved U.S.-Japan relations • 25%
Strained U.S.-China relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other impacts • 25%
Analyses from international relations experts and official statements
Story
Biden to Decide on CFIUS Deadlock Over Nippon Steel's $15 Billion Acquisition of U.S. Steel Within 15 Days
Dec 24, 2024, 01:58 AM
The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) has failed to reach a consensus regarding Nippon Steel's proposed acquisition of U.S. Steel, valued at nearly $15 billion. This deadlock has resulted in the decision being referred to President Joe Biden, who has historically opposed the deal. Biden is expected to make a ruling within 15 days. The lack of agreement among CFIUS members centers on national security concerns related to the acquisition. Nippon Steel has expressed confidence that if the benefits of the deal are fairly evaluated, it would receive approval. The company has not received any updates from CFIUS regarding the review status. The situation has drawn attention due to the potential implications for U.S. steel production and international relations, particularly with China, which is perceived to have an interest in the outcome of the acquisition.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Relations worsen • 25%
Relations remain the same • 25%
Relations improve • 25%
Significant diplomatic incident • 25%
No Significant Change • 25%
Positive Impact • 25%
Negative Impact • 25%
Unclear Impact • 25%
Approved without conditions • 25%
Blocked • 25%
Approved with conditions • 25%
Decision delayed • 25%
Acquisition modified • 25%
Acquisition blocked • 25%
Acquisition completed as planned • 25%
Acquisition delayed • 25%
Opposed • 34%
Supportive • 33%
Neutral • 33%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Withdrawn • 25%
Rejected • 25%
Approved • 25%
Conditional Approval • 25%
Mostly Positive • 25%
Mostly Negative • 25%
Mixed • 25%
Indifferent • 25%
Deal Withdrawn by Nippon Steel • 25%
Deal Approved • 25%
Deal Blocked by Biden • 25%
Deal Blocked by CFIUS • 25%
Slightly weakened • 25%
Strengthened • 25%
Significantly weakened • 25%
Unchanged • 25%