Market
How will mediators be perceived in terms of the ceasefire's success or failure by the end of the six-week period?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Mediators credited for success • 25%
Mediators blamed for failure • 25%
Mediators' role neutral • 25%
No consensus on mediators' role • 25%
Statements from involved parties, media analysis, and reports from international relations experts
Story
Blinken Confident Israel-Hamas Gaza Ceasefire Will Start Sunday, Mediated by U.S., Qatar, Egypt
Jan 16, 2025, 04:39 PM
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken expressed confidence that the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza will begin on Sunday as planned, despite a last-minute issue that delayed the Israeli government's approval of the deal. The ceasefire and hostage release agreement, mediated by the U.S., Qatar, and Egypt, aims to halt 15 months of conflict. Blinken noted that negotiators are addressing the final details, which he referred to as a 'loose end.' The deal includes a six-week initial ceasefire, the gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, and the release of hostages by Hamas in exchange for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.
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Similar markets
Joint effort • 25%
Qatar • 25%
Egypt • 25%
United States • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Progress towards peace talks • 25%
Extended humanitarian aid • 25%
Renewed hostilities • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Broad international support • 25%
Broad international criticism • 25%
No Role • 25%
Significant Role • 25%
Minor Role • 25%
Critical Role • 25%
Qatar • 25%
Other entities • 25%
Both Qatar and United States • 25%
United States • 25%
Ceasefire successfully completed • 25%
Ceasefire ended early due to violations • 25%
Ceasefire extended beyond six weeks • 25%
Ceasefire collapsed, conflict resumed • 25%
Negative from EU • 25%
Positive from US • 25%
Positive from EU • 25%
Negative from US • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
Hostage negotiations fail • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Qatar plays the key role • 25%
Egypt plays the key role • 25%
US plays the key role • 25%
All equally contribute • 25%
Qatar • 25%
United States • 25%
Egypt • 25%
Other • 25%
Renegotiated • 25%
Broken • 25%
Other • 25%
Extended • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Ceasefire talks collapse • 25%
Ceasefire talks continue without agreement • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%