Market
How will independent organizations verify the downed F-16 incident by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Verified as true • 25%
Verified as false • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
No verification attempt • 25%
Reports from independent military analysts or international watchdogs
Story
Russia Claims First Downing of US-Supplied Ukrainian F-16 Over Zaporizhzhia
Dec 26, 2024, 04:03 PM
Russian forces claim to have shot down a US-supplied F-16 fighter jet of the Ukrainian Air Force over the Zaporizhzhia region using Russian air defense systems. The incident reportedly occurred as the aircraft was preparing to launch a missile strike. The claim was made by Russian state media and officials, including Vladimir Rogov, co-chair of Russia’s Coordinating Council for the Integration of New Regions. The downing has not been confirmed by Ukraine or any external sources. If true, this would mark the first time a Ukrainian F-16AM 'Fighting Falcon' has been downed by Russian air defenses in the conflict.
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Cause remains undetermined • 25%
Technical malfunction • 25%
Pilot error • 25%
Russia found responsible • 25%
United Nations • 25%
None • 25%
European Union • 25%
United States • 25%
Intentional attack • 25%
Human error • 25%
Technical malfunction • 25%
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None of the above • 25%
United Nations • 25%
International Committee of the Red Cross • 25%
Amnesty International • 25%
United Nations • 25%
Human Rights Watch • 25%
Other • 25%
Amnesty International • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Other • 25%
Training improvements suggested • 25%
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Kazakhstan • 25%
Unknown • 25%
Non-state Actor • 25%
Russia • 25%
Weather conditions • 25%
Pilot error • 25%
Mechanical failure • 25%
Other • 25%
Iran • 25%
Other • 25%
Russia • 25%
North Korea • 25%
