Market
How will Democratic federal managers respond to Trump's directives by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Majority comply • 25%
Majority resist • 25%
Mixed response • 25%
Indeterminate • 25%
Surveys or reports from federal agencies and employee unions
Story
Poll Shows Nearly Half of Federal Employees Plan to Resist Trump, 80% of Pro-Harris Managers Oppose His Agenda, 1% Support, $2 Trillion Cuts
Jan 13, 2025, 05:00 PM
A recent survey conducted by the Napolitan Institute and RMG Research indicates that nearly half of federal employees plan to resist President Trump's administration as he begins his second term. The poll reveals that 80% of federal government managers who supported Kamala Harris in the previous election intend to oppose Trump's efforts, while only 1% expressed any willingness to support him. Additionally, only 17% of Democratic federal managers who voted for Harris stated they would follow an order from Trump. This resistance appears to be organized, with reports suggesting that federal employees opposed to Trump have previously held meetings to strategize against his policies. The survey underscores a deep divide within the federal workforce regarding the incoming administration's agenda.
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Majority support • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
Low public engagement • 25%
Majority opposition • 25%
Increase in federal workforce • 25%
Decrease in federal workforce • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
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No • 50%
Majority of states support • 25%
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Majority of states oppose • 25%
Eliminate all DEI directives • 50%
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Complete End • 25%
No Change • 25%
Expansion • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Seek legal action • 25%
Compliance with directive • 25%
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Significant changes implemented • 25%
Minimal changes • 25%
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Telework reduced • 25%
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