Market
How many sanctuary cities will change their policies due to federal pressure by end of 2025?
1
Resolution / Starting Odds
None • 25%
1-5 • 25%
6-10 • 25%
More than 10 • 25%
Reports from credible news outlets or official city announcements
Story
Trump's Justice Department Orders Prosecutors to Target Officials Obstructing Immigration Enforcement
Jan 22, 2025, 02:22 PM
The U.S. Justice Department, under the Trump administration, has directed federal prosecutors nationwide to investigate and potentially prosecute state and local officials who obstruct federal immigration enforcement efforts, including those in sanctuary cities. According to an internal memo obtained by The Associated Press, Reuters, and Bloomberg Law, Acting Deputy Attorney General Emil Bove instructed all U.S. Attorneys' offices to "take all appropriate actions" against officials who resist or fail to comply with lawful immigration-related commands and requests, including mass deportation initiatives. The memo states that any declination to prosecute must be documented in an urgent memo. The administration is also preparing to challenge sanctuary laws in court as it intensifies enforcement of immigration laws.
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Weakening of policies • 25%
No change • 25%
Strengthening of policies • 25%
Mixed changes • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Decrease in sanctuary cities • 25%
Increase in sanctuary cities • 25%
Reversal of sanctuary policies • 25%
More than 15 states • 25%
0-5 states • 25%
6-10 states • 25%
11-15 states • 25%
No Change • 25%
Increase in Sanctuary Policies • 25%
Decrease in Sanctuary Policies • 25%
Other • 25%
Funding cuts to sanctuary cities • 25%
No significant actions • 25%
Legal action against sanctuary cities • 25%
Increased ICE operations in sanctuary cities • 25%
4-5 cities • 25%
Only Chicago • 25%
2-3 cities • 25%
More than 5 cities • 25%
11 to 15 • 25%
Less than 5 • 25%
More than 15 • 25%
5 to 10 • 25%
More than 5 cities • 25%
Only Chicago • 25%
2-3 cities • 25%
4-5 cities • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Other • 25%
Oppose and obstruct • 25%
Support and cooperate • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
More than 15 cities • 25%
11-15 cities • 25%
6-10 cities • 25%
1-5 cities • 25%