Market
How many American hostages will be released due to Adam Boehler's negotiations by December 31, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
0 • 25%
1-2 • 25%
3-5 • 25%
More than 5 • 25%
Official U.S. government statements or credible news reports detailing hostage releases
Story
Trump Appoints Adam Boehler, Abraham Accords Negotiator, as Special Envoy for Hostage Affairs
Dec 4, 2024, 04:15 PM
President-elect Donald Trump has appointed Adam Boehler as the Special Presidential Envoy for Hostage Affairs, with the personal rank of Ambassador. Boehler, who previously served as a lead negotiator on the Abraham Accords team, has experience negotiating with some of the toughest figures globally, including the Taliban. His appointment aims to bring American hostages back home, although Trump did not specifically mention the hostages in Gaza. Boehler also serves on the board of the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum.
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Similar markets
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
All hostages released • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
0-10 • 25%
More than 30 • 25%
21-30 • 25%
11-20 • 25%
More than 33 hostages • 25%
21-33 hostages • 25%
11-20 hostages • 25%
0-10 hostages • 25%
Some released • 25%
None released • 25%
All seven released • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
No significant outcome • 25%
Hostages released • 25%
Military action taken • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
