Market
First Oath Keeper to defy D.C. court order by end of 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Stewart Rhodes • 25%
Another named Oath Keeper • 25%
Multiple Oath Keepers simultaneously • 25%
None • 25%
News reports or social media posts confirming the defiance
Story
Oath Keepers' Rhodes and Seven Others Barred From D.C. After Trump Commutes Sentences
Jan 24, 2025, 03:19 PM
Stewart Rhodes, the founder of the far-right extremist group Oath Keepers, visited Capitol Hill on Wednesday after his 18-year prison sentence for seditious conspiracy in the January 6, 2021 attack was commuted by President Donald Trump. Rhodes, who did not enter the Capitol during the riot but was convicted of orchestrating the plot, met with lawmakers and defended his actions. Following his visit, U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta barred Rhodes and seven other Oath Keepers whose sentences were commuted from entering Washington, D.C., or the U.S. Capitol without court permission. This order came in response to concerns about potential future acts of violence by those released under Trump's sweeping clemency order, which affected more than 1,500 people charged in the riot during his second term.
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Stewart Rhodes • 13%
Other • 63%
Defendant 3 • 13%
Defendant 2 • 13%
Civil Rights Organization • 25%
Other • 25%
State Government • 25%
Department of Justice • 25%
Stewart Rhodes • 25%
Kelly Meggs • 25%
Other member • 25%
Jessica Watkins • 25%
Other • 25%
CNN • 25%
Fox News • 25%
New York Times • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Cooperation with authorities • 25%
Other reasons • 25%
Lack of prior criminal history • 25%
Mental health considerations • 25%
