Market
EU legal action against Ukraine or Russia over gas halt by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Legal filings or official statements from the EU
Story
Slovak PM Warns of Severe EU Impact, 30 Times Greater Than Russia's, from Halt in Gas Transit on January 1, 2025
Jan 1, 2025, 09:52 AM
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has warned that the cessation of Russian gas transit through Ukraine will have severe, dramatic, and drastic consequences for the European Union, while Russia will remain unaffected. Fico stated that the impact on the EU would be approximately 30 times greater than any losses incurred by Russia. The halt in gas transit occurred on January 1, 2025, following the expiration of the transit agreement between Gazprom and Naftogaz of Ukraine, with Ukraine refusing to extend the deal. Gazprom has cited a lack of 'technical and legal ability' to continue supplying gas due to this refusal.
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Similar markets
Other • 25%
Negotiate with Russia for new terms • 25%
Increase renewable energy investments • 25%
Implement alternative gas routes • 25%
EU mediation efforts • 25%
Sanctions against Ukraine • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Sanctions against Slovakia • 25%
Increase LNG imports • 25%
Impose sanctions on Ukraine • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Negotiate a new transit deal • 25%
Negotiated settlement • 25%
International arbitration • 25%
Continued cutoff without resolution • 25%
Other • 25%
Ukraine halts gas transit • 25%
Slovakia stops electricity supply • 25%
Both actions occur • 25%
No actions taken • 25%
